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Millions of rows of data on the financial indicators of companies for the previous five years have been used in the modeling of estimated turnover. Differences between economic periods and the quarterly taxed turnover published by the Tax Board have also been compared, the proportions of which have been taken into account both in the forecast quarterly turnover and in the forecast turnover for the current year.
In this year's forecast turnover model, the growth/decrease trends of the company's quarterly turnover in previous years also play an important role, which have been reduced to this year's forecast indicators.
In the forecast model, the credit score of both the company and the board member (decider) is also significant. For example, if a problematic board member (for example, a fronman) ends up at the head of the company, the forecast turnover essentially stops või even decreases, for example in the case of debts (assets are taken out of the company).
Similar to estimated turnover, all other basic forecast balance lines are also modeled, such as: balance sheet volume, current assets, fixed assets, short-term liabilities, long-term liabilities, equity, net profit, retained earnings.
For all companies, estimated financial indicators are recalculated (updated) every night.
Read more:HEREHow are estimated quarterly turnovers calculated?
In order to obtain the quarterly estimated turnover for the current year, we have first identified the differences between the turnover of the previous financial period (annual report) and the quarterly turnover declared at the Tax Office, which result from the specifics of non-taxed turnover and/or reverse taxed turnover and due to which, for example, importing/exporting companies may differ quite a lot from the actual ones in the financial year reports of turnovers.
In the case of non-taxed declared turnover, the forecasted quarterly turnover is generally higher, and in the case of reverse taxed turnover, it is lower than the taxed quarterly turnover amounts disclosed by the Tax Board.